Mediterranean-type diet trajectories and 20-year cardiovascular disease incidence: the ATTICA study (2002-2022)

Abstract Background/Introduction The protective effects of the Mediterranean-type diet (MTD) against cardiovascular disease (CVD) are well-known. However, based on a recent systematic review of 57 studies with 1,125,560 participants, MTD adherence has declined worldwide, even in the Mediterranean region, compared to the past, especially in the last decade. Moreover, studies evaluating changes in diet and CVD risk are scarce. Purpose The aim of this study was to longitudinally evaluate MTD adherence and changes in MTD adherence during 20-years of follow-up and its relation to 20-year CVD incidence. Methods Participants initially free-of-CVD from the ATTICA study were used (n=1,986). At 2002 and 2022, CVD events were assessed according to WHO-ICD-10 and MTD adherence was assessed via MedDietScore (range: 0-55). Hence, MTD trajectories were defined according to MTD adherence in 2002 and in 2022 as: low-low, low-high, high-low, high-high (i.e., high: MedDietScore >27/55). Results During the 20-year follow-up, 30.2% (n=600) of the participants were always away (i.e., low-low), 30.0% (n=596) went away (high-low), 21.4% (n=424) were always close (high-high) and 22% got closer (low-high) to the MTD. The 20-year CVD incidence was: 38.8% (n=233), 87.7% (n=321), 10.2% (n=61) and 24.3% (n=103) in those in the low-low, low-high, high-low and high-high trajectory, respectively (p-value<0.001). In multi-adjusted models, adjusted for socio-economic, clinical and lifestyle parameters, it was found that compared to those who were always away from the MTD, those who were always close had 68% lower CVD risk [Hazard Ratio-HR: 0.32, 95%Confidence Interval-CI: 0.14, 0.72], while those who went away during the 20-year follow-up had 47% lower CVD risk [HR: 0.53, 95%CI: 0.32, 0.86]. Conclusion Our study findings highlight the long-lasting effects of the MTD adherence early in the life-course. Public health measures to prevent CVD should focus on facilitating MTD adherence, as early in life as possible.