An Analysis of the Impact of Coastal Fishery by Temperature and Precipitation in South Korea

This study analyses the impacts of climate change on the coastal fisheries industry as a whole and by sector using monthly data from 1993 to 2023. First, the Granger causality test shows that there is a causal relationship between temperature and precipitation and the output of coastal fisheries as a whole and by sector. Second, based on the results of the VAR model analysis, the shock response function shows that changes in temperature and precipitation have a significant impact on total and sectoral output in the short term, but the impact is partially mitigated over time. The forecast error variance decomposition shows that the initial impact and explanatory power of temperature and precipitation on total and sectoral changes in coastal fisheries output is small, but the magnitude of the impact increases over time.