The Magnitude Of The Informal Remittances Flow To Kenya: An Augmented Gravity Model Approach.

Background: In Kenya remittances are now a proper source of external finances. Kenya received $4.19 billion in form of diaspora remittances in year 2023. Over the years, remittances are proving to be more stable, well diversified and are promising more growth relative to foreign direct investments, official development assistance, private capital and exports. On the micro scale the remittances are helping achieve Kenya’s developmental goals of having a globally competitive human resource and an adequately and decently housed population as outlined in the country’s development blueprint - The Kenya Vision 2030. Though the remittances are these important, official remittance data in Kenya, as well as in many African countries, only include remittances sent through formal channels such as banks and Money transfer Operators. Remittances through the informal channels such as hawalas and hundis are not recorded. This means that the recorded remittances are grossly understated impeding the capacity of policy makers to design appropriate policies aimed at encouraging remittances. The study employed panel data analysis and a thought experiment on remittance data between 2013Q1 and 2022Q4. Through a thought experiment, the study asks what impact a reduction of the costs of sending remittances would have on remittances if the transaction costs were reduced to that of the informal channels of sending remittances. The analysis revealed that the size of the informal remittances in Kenya is between 20% and 26% of the formal remittances. On the determinants of remittance flows to Kenya, the study establishes that Kenyan migrants send more when the economic freedoms and economic conditions improve in their host nations but send less when economic freedoms back at home improve. Accurately measuring informal emittances in Kenya is vital for creating effective government policies. This data would reveal the true extent of remittances' impact on the economy, allowing policymakers to develop strategies that fully utilize their potential for development. By encouraging people to send money through official channels, the government can increase tax income, improve access to financial services, and better monitor these transactions. Additionally, understanding the size of informal remittances is essential for combating financial crimes like money laundering and ensuring that resources are used efficiently