LOST and Found in Walmart: Walmart's Effect on Local Option Sales Tax (LOSTs) Adoption and Sales Tax Revenue

Throughout the period of adoption of Local Option Sales Taxes (LOSTs) by local governments research has found many causes and associations for adoption and utilization of LOSTs. This research explores the impact that the rise of Large Supply Chain retailers, which expanded along much the same timeline as LOSTs, had on the adoption of LOSTs and collection of sales tax revenue. Leveraging LOST adoption along different timelines in three states and hundreds of Walmart openings, a Cox Proportional Hazard Model is used to estimate the impact a Walmart opening has on time to adoption of LOST at the county level. A Difference in Difference with multiple validity and robustness checks is used to estimate the impact on sales tax collection. Results indicate that a Walmart opening has a large impact on the hazard ratio—indicating it speeds time to adoption. Unsurprisingly, this leads to larger sales tax revenue collections by host jurisdictions.