Saltwater intrusion simulations in coastal karstic aquifers related to climate change scenarios

Abstract Coastal zones are crucial ecosystems supporting significant biodiversity and pertinent socio-economic activities. However, anthropogenic development contributes to socio-environmental complexities, particularly public water supply threats caused by climate change. This research presents a case study on the north-western coast of Yucatan, Mexico, which models potential saltwater intrusion in groundwater for multiple projections of sea level rise and recharge change due to climate change and its implications for the public water supply of the regional population and ecosystem. For this purpose, a previously calibrated and validated numerical model is employed, adapting its boundary conditions, keeping its calibrated hydrogeologic parameters, and considering the 2040 and 2100 climate change projections. Simulation results show that under these projections, significant saltwater intrusion may occur, reducing freshwater thickness due to increased salinity in groundwater and a loss of freshwater sources resulting from brackish-saline wedge intrusion. These scenarios are of particular concern as freshwater in this coastal region is the main source for public water supply and for freshwater input in coastal ecosystems. Moreover, this study underscores the susceptibility of karstic aquifers to salinization, especially in the face of rising sea levels, given their unique hydrogeological characteristics and substantial responsiveness to marine forcings. In spite of the uncertainties in global climate change predictions, this study enhances our understanding of the dynamics of these unique aquifers, and presents future saltwater intrusion projections that offer valuable technical insights to design and implement pertinent and resilient coastal aquifer management strategies.