The carbon emission reduction benefits of the transformation of the intensive use of cultivated land in China

The transformation of the intensive use of cultivated land has an important impact on agricultural carbon emissions (ACE). However, the existing research on the impact mechanisms of the transformation of intensive use of cultivated land on carbon emissions is not clear. In view of this, this study constructs the impact mechanism of the transformation of intensive use of cultivated land on carbon emissions from the perspective of production factors substitution based on the theory of induced technological change and the theory of marginal returns. Using the Cobb-Douglas production function, this study identifies the transformation patterns of intensive use of cultivated land in China from 1980 to 2021. Furthermore, this study simulates the carbon emission reduction benefits brought about by the transformation of the intensive use of cultivated land by considering the cost of agricultural production. The results show that, first, from 1980 to 2021, the price of agricultural labor increased by 224.10%, while the price of other agricultural production factors significantly decreased. China's intensive use of cultivated land methods has undergone four stages: agricultural labor-intensive (ALI), yield-enhancing factor-intensive (YEFI), labor-saving factor-intensive (LSFI), and innovation factor-intensive (IFI). In 2021, most of China's provinces were in the YEFI or ALI stages. Second, between 1993 and 2021, the transformation of China's intensive use of cultivated land brought about an 87.48% increase in carbon emissions, while the spatial clustering effect of carbon emissions weakened. Furthermore, the results show that, the transition of the use of cultivated land from ALI to YEFI and YEFI to LSFI will reduce carbon emissions by 7.89%, and input factors costs will increase by 23.85%. If all regions, except for those in the IFI stage, transition to the LSFI model, it will result in a 17.56% reduction in carbon emissions, with a corresponding increase of 33.40% of the input factors input costs. This research enriches the theoretical foundation of literature about the transformation of the intensive use of cultivated land. It also expands the research perspective on agricultural carbon emissions. This research also helps provide references for the direction of the transformation of the intensive use of cultivated land in China and the achievement of the dual carbon goals.