Assessing the impacts of land use and climate change on the distribution patterns of Ulex europaeus L. (Fabaceae) in the Canary Islands

Abstract Biological invasions are one of the major threats to biodiversity, but their impact is particularly detrimental on oceanic islands like the Canary Archipelago. The common gorse ( Ulex europaeus L. (Fabaceae)) is a highly invasive shrub with established populations in Tenerife, the sole island of the archipelago where it is present. Understanding the habitat preferences of U. europaeus is essential for predicting its current and potential future distribution across Tenerife and other Canary Islands, guiding effective local management practices. In 2019 and 2020, we surveyed different populations of U. europaeus in Tenerife, retrieving information on its abundance, presence of other invasive species and most frequent natural and anthropogenic characteristics of the landscape. We used this information to build explanatory and predictive models to identify the key natural and anthropogenic drivers of U. europaeus abundance in Tenerife and estimate the potential distribution of the species across the whole archipelago under current and future climatic conditions. Our findings showed that U. europaeus thrives in humid areas impacted by human activities where other invasive species persist. Both current and future climatic conditions do not support the presence of the species in the more arid islands of the archipelago (i.e., Fuerteventura and Lanzarote), rather highlight that the windwards, and thus more humid, areas of the other islands might support the species also under future warmer climatic scenarios. These findings deepen our understanding of U. europaeus local dynamics and are crucial to inform targeted management strategies to mitigate its impact across the Canary Archipelago and, ultimately, oceanic islands.