Do mercenaries perform better than states? Evaluating the Wagner group’s impact on Central African Republic

Do mercenaries perform better than democratic state armies? This study examines the efficacy of mercenary groups compared to state military interventions, using the Wagner Group’s operations in the Central African Republic as a case study. By comparing the French Operation Sangaris (2013–2016) with Wagner’s involvement (2021–2023), the research evaluates their relative effectiveness across counterinsurgency measures, military success, and popular responses. Utilizing data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, the analysis reveals that the Wagner Group outperformed the French intervention in most metrics, including territorial gains, geographical spread of operations, and reduction of civil unrest. These findings challenge prevailing assumptions about mercenaries’ ineffectiveness. The study suggests that the Wagner Group’s perceived effectiveness, despite its controversial reputation and association to human rights violations, explains its appeal to African governments seeking security solutions. This research contributes to ongoing debates about the role of private military companies in conflict zones and has implications for understanding the changing dynamics of security provision in Africa and beyond.