No Future Growth Enhancement Expected at the Northern Edge for European Beech due to Continued Water Limitation

With ongoing global warming, increasing water deficits promote physiological stress on forest ecosystems with negative impacts on tree growth, vitality, and survival. How individual tree species will react to increased drought stress is therefore a key research question to address for carbon accounting and the development of climate change mitigation strategies. Recent tree-ring studies have shown that trees at higher latitudes will benefit from warmer temperatures, yet this is likely highly species-dependent and less well-known for more temperate tree species. Using a unique pan-European tree-ring network of 26,430 European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) trees from 2118 sites, we applied a linear mixed-effects modeling framework to (i) explain variation in climate-dependent growth and (ii) project growth for the near future (2021-2050) across the entire distribution of beech. We modeled the spatial pattern of radial growth responses to annually varying climate as a function of mean climate conditions (mean annual temperature, mean annual climatic water balance, and continentality). Over the calibration period (1952-2011), the model yielded high regional explanatory power (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.38-0.72). Considering a moderate climate change scenario (CMIP6 SSP2-4.5), beech growth is projected to decrease in the future across most of its distribution range. In particular, projected growth decreases by 12%-18% (interquartile range) in northwestern Central Europe and by 11%-21% in the Mediterranean region. In contrast, climate-driven growth increases are limited to around 13% of the current occurrence, where the historical mean annual temperature was below ~6°C. More specifically, the model predicts a 3%-24% growth increase in the high-elevation clusters of the Alps and Carpathian Arc. Notably, we find little potential for future growth increases (-10 to +2%) at the poleward leading edge in southern Scandinavia. Because in this region beech growth is found to be primarily water-limited, a northward shift in its distributional range will be constrained by water availability.

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Publication Details

Journal
Global Change Biology
Published
2024-10-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17546
Citations
33
Primary Topic
Genetic and phenotypic traits in livestock
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
18.16

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article

No Future Growth Enhancement Expected at the Northern Edge for European Beech due to Continued Water Limitation

Ion Cătălin Petrițan, Peter Prislan, Srđan Keren, Nicolas Latte et al.
33 citations
Global Change Biology
Genetic and phenotypic traits in livestock
18.16
article

No Future Growth Enhancement Expected at the Northern Edge for European Beech due to Continued Water Limitation

Ion Cătălin Petrițan, Peter Prislan, Srđan Keren, Nicolas Latte, Alexander Land, Jakub Kašpar, Choimaa Dulamsuren, Andrea Hevia, Anna Neycken, Volodymyr Trotsiuk, Claudia Hartl, Pavel Janda, Ionel Popa, Lena Muffler, Didier Bert, Josep María Espelta, Claudia Baittinger, Richard L. Peters, Hugues Claessens, Alistair S. Jump, Pavel Šamonil, Michael Grabner, Edurne Martínez del Castillo, Georg von Arx, M. Budeanu, Stefan Klesse, Robert Weigel, Jožica Gričar, Martin Wilmking, Cătălin-Constantin Roibu, Michal Bošeľa, Raquel Alfaro‐Sánchez, Raúl Sánchez‐Salguero, Branko Stajić, Maks Merela, J. Julio Camarero, Christian Zang, Isabel Dorado‐Liñán, Jüergen Kreyling, Roberto Tognetti, Momchil Panayotov, Marieke van der Maaten‐Theunissen, Ivana Vašíčková, Christoph Leuschner, Álvaro Rubio‐Cuadrado, Liam Cavin, Franco Biondi, Luis Alberto Longares Aladrén, Annette Menzel, Marko Kazimirović, Balázs Garamszegi, Martina L. Hobi, Astrid Vannoppen, Mathieu Lévesque, Tom Levanič, Vojtěch Čada, Andrew Hacket‐Pain, Martín de Luis, Katarina Čufar, Elvin Toromani, Miroslav Svoboda, François Lebourgeois, Allan Buras, Giovanna Battipaglia, Renzo Motta, Martin Mikoláš, Tzvetan Zlatanov, Jon Kehlet Hansen, Paola Nola, Ernst van der Maaten, Any Mary Petritan, Vincent Badeau, Ana-Maria Cretan
article en
33 citations

Abstract

With ongoing global warming, increasing water deficits promote physiological stress on forest ecosystems with negative impacts on tree growth, vitality, and survival. How individual tree species will react to increased drought stress is therefore a key research question to address for carbon accounting and the development of climate change mitigation strategies. Recent tree-ring studies have shown that trees at higher latitudes will benefit from warmer temperatures, yet this is likely highly species-dependent and less well-known for more temperate tree species. Using a unique pan-European tree-ring network of 26,430 European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) trees from 2118 sites, we applied a linear mixed-effects modeling framework to (i) explain variation in climate-dependent growth and (ii) project growth for the near future (2021-2050) across the entire distribution of beech. We modeled the spatial pattern of radial growth responses to annually varying climate as a function of mean climate conditions (mean annual temperature, mean annual climatic water balance, and continentality). Over the calibration period (1952-2011), the model yielded high regional explanatory power (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.38-0.72). Considering a moderate climate change scenario (CMIP6 SSP2-4.5), beech growth is projected to decrease in the future across most of its distribution range. In particular, projected growth decreases by 12%-18% (interquartile range) in northwestern Central Europe and by 11%-21% in the Mediterranean region. In contrast, climate-driven growth increases are limited to around 13% of the current occurrence, where the historical mean annual temperature was below ~6°C. More specifically, the model predicts a 3%-24% growth increase in the high-elevation clusters of the Alps and Carpathian Arc. Notably, we find little potential for future growth increases (-10 to +2%) at the poleward leading edge in southern Scandinavia. Because in this region beech growth is found to be primarily water-limited, a northward shift in its distributional range will be constrained by water availability.

Global Change BiologyVol. 30(10)
Agricultural University of Tirana (AL), University of Hohenheim (DE), Ştefan cel Mare University of Suceava (RO), University of Stirling (GB), University of Copenhagen (DK), Canadian Forest Service (CA), Natural Resources Canada (CA), CEA CESTA (FR), Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (CH), University of Nevada, Reno (US), University of Liverpool (GB), Université de Bordeaux (FR), University of Ljubljana (SI), University of Liège (BE), University of Freiburg (DE), University of Forestry (BG), Free University of Bozen-Bolzano (IT), University of Basel (CH), Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (DE), University of Campania "Luigi Vanvitelli" (IT), Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (CZ), AgroParisTech (FR), Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BG), University of Pavia (IT), Universidad de Zaragoza (ES), Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech (BE), Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (CH), Senckenberg - Leibniz Institution for Biodiversity and Earth System Research (DE), University of Agriculture in Krakow (PL), Weihenstephan-Triesdorf University of Applied Sciences (DE), Transylvania University of Brașov (RO), ETH Zurich (CH), Universität Greifswald (DE), University of Belgrade (RS), Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR), Technická univerzita vo Zvolene (SK), National Institute for Research and Development in Forestry "Marin Drăcea" (RO), Silva (FR), Slovenian Forestry Institute (SI), National Forest Centre (SK), Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (ES), Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research (BG), Centre for Research on Ecology and Forestry Applications (ES), UMR BIOdiversity, GEnes & Communities (FR), National Museum of Denmark (DK), Landscape Research Institute (CZ), University of Bayreuth (DE), University of Turin (IT), Mendel University in Brno (CZ), Technical University of Munich (DE), Flemish Institute for Technological Research (BE), University of Göttingen (DE), Technische Universität Dresden (DE), Universidad de Sevilla (ES), Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (ES), Université de Lorraine (FR), BOKU University (AT), Universidad Pablo de Olavide (ES)
Universität Basel, Université de Lorraine, Universität Hohenheim, Uniwersytet Rolniczy im. Hugona Kołłątaja w Krakowie, University of Nevada, Reno, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung, Grantová Agentura České Republiky, University of Stirling, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Technische Universität Dresden, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Universitatea Transilvania din Brasov, Ministarstvo Prosvete, Nauke i Tehnološkog Razvoja, Università degli Studi di Pavia, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, AgroParisTech, Agentúra na Podporu Výskumu a Vývoja, Université de Liège, Technische Universität München, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Université de Bordeaux, Universität für Bodenkultur Wien, Università degli Studi di Torino, Universidad de Zaragoza, Universidad de Jaén, Vlaamse Instelling voor Technologisch Onderzoek, Univerza v Ljubljani, Mendelova Univerzita v Brně, Ministerstvo Pôdohospodárstva a Rozvoja Vidieka Slovenskej Republiky, Università degli Studi della Campania Luigi Vanvitelli, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Universität Greifswald, Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement, U.S. Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Natural Environment Research Council, Bundesamt für Umwelt, Agencia Estatal de Investigación, Département de la Santé des Forêts, European Social Fund, Canadian Forest Service
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