ANALISIS INTEGRASI PASAR SPASIAL HARGA TELUR AYAM RAS MENGGUNAKAN METODE VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

Purebred chicken eggs are one of the staple commodities whose price development continues to be monitored by the government. To maintain price stability of purebred chicken eggs, an understanding of spatial market integration is needed. Spatial market integration can show the level of closeness between markets in a region. The spatial market integration in this study was modeled using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method. The VECM method was chosen with the aim of seeing the relationship between the price movement of purebred chicken eggs both in the short and long term, seeing the interaction of relationships that occur in each region and forecasting the price of purebred chicken eggs. The research objects used include the price of purebred chicken eggs in Semarang City, Salatiga City, Demak Regency, and Pati Regency in the period January 2021 to December 2022. The data used is weekly time series data that has met the stationary test at the first differential level. Based on the Johansen cointegration test on the four regions, 3 cointegrations were obtained, indicating that in each short-term period all variables adjust to each other to achieve long-term equilibrium. Granger's causality test in this study showed that not all variables have a two-way relationship. The resulting MAPE value is less than 10%, so the resulting model is very feasible to use.