Modelling interrelations between C-ITS impact categories: a system-dynamics approach using causal loop diagrams

Abstract The growing number of connected vehicles has led to an increased focus on Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) communication in the field of transport research. This communication paradigm facilitates cooperation between vehicles and infrastructure to address traffic challenges such as efficiency, sustainability and safety. The development and standardisation of such Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems (C-ITS) has been pursued in several projects. Beyond technical considerations, assessing the effect of these applications in terms of various impact categories is of paramount importance. However, existing research tends to examine impact categories such as efficiency, sustainability, safety, psychological or socioeconomic impacts separately, often overlooking potential interactions and interdependencies. This approach is inadequate as impacts on one category can have both cascading effects on others and rebound effects. To address this gap, this paper proposes a system dynamics approach using Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD) to illustrate the interconnectedness of impact categories and the potential impacts of C-ITS services. By depicting general relationships, interdependencies and feedback loops between impact category elements, the model accommodates the introduction of single or multiple C-ITS services as separate modules, allowing an analysis of their combined effects on the overall system. To this end, two use cases demonstrate the applicability of the developed CLD and illustrate some of the multiple interrelations between the effects of C-ITS services. The results of this paper support road operators and researchers when setting up the impact assessment of C-ITS services by revealing the dynamic and intertwined nature of different impact categories.