Predicting and assessing the impacts of COVID-19 disruption on marine science and sectors in Australia

Abstract By March 2020 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was anticipated to present a major challenge to the work undertaken by scientists. This pandemic could be considered just one of the shocks that human society has had and will be likely to confront again in the future. As strategic thinking about the future can assist performance and planning of scientific research in the face of change, the pandemic presented an opportunity to evaluate the performance of marine researchers in prediction of future outcomes. In March 2020, two groups of researchers predicted outcomes for the Australian marine research sector, and then evaluated these predictions after 18 months. The self-assessed coping ability of a group experienced in ‘futures studies’ was not higher than the less-experienced group, suggesting that scientists in general may be well placed to cope with shocks. A range of changes to scientific endeavours (e.g., travel, fieldwork) and to marine sectors (e.g., fisheries, biodiversity) were predicted over the first 12–18 months of COVID-19 disruption. The predicted direction of change was generally correct (56%) or neutral (25%) for predictions related to the scientific endeavour, and correct (73%) or mixed (9%) for predictions related to sectors that are the focus of marine research. The success of this foresighting experiment suggests that the collective wisdom of scientists can be used by their organisations to consider the impact of shocks and disruptions and to better prepare for and cope with shocks. Graphical abstract Word cloud analysis of free text responses to questions about expected impact of COVID-19 on the activities associated with marine science

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Publication Details

Journal
Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries
Published
2024-10-25
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11160-024-09899-3
Primary Topic
COVID-19 impact on air quality
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Predicting and assessing the impacts of COVID-19 disruption on marine science and sectors in Australia

Ingrid E. van Putten, Chris Moeseneder, J. Paige Eveson, Alistair James Hobday et al.
Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries
COVID-19 impact on air quality
article

Predicting and assessing the impacts of COVID-19 disruption on marine science and sectors in Australia

Ingrid E. van Putten, Chris Moeseneder, J. Paige Eveson, Alistair James Hobday, Qamar Schuyler, Toby A. Patterson, Joanna Strzelecki, Mary Mackay, Natalie Dowling, Chris Wilcox, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Heidi Pethybridge, Jess Melbourne-Thomas, Karlie S. McDonald, Jemery Day, Andrew Lenton, Gabriela Scheufele, Robin Thomson, Jeffrey M. Dambacher, Cathy Bulman, Cindy Bessey, Piers K. Dunstan, Stephanie Contardo, Jessica H. Farley, Shane M. Baylis, Sean Pascoe, Éva E. Plagányi, Fabio Boschetti, Robert L. Stephenson, Mark Green, Peter Grewe, Haris Kunnath, Vicki M. Walters
article en

Abstract

Abstract By March 2020 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was anticipated to present a major challenge to the work undertaken by scientists. This pandemic could be considered just one of the shocks that human society has had and will be likely to confront again in the future. As strategic thinking about the future can assist performance and planning of scientific research in the face of change, the pandemic presented an opportunity to evaluate the performance of marine researchers in prediction of future outcomes. In March 2020, two groups of researchers predicted outcomes for the Australian marine research sector, and then evaluated these predictions after 18 months. The self-assessed coping ability of a group experienced in ‘futures studies’ was not higher than the less-experienced group, suggesting that scientists in general may be well placed to cope with shocks. A range of changes to scientific endeavours (e.g., travel, fieldwork) and to marine sectors (e.g., fisheries, biodiversity) were predicted over the first 12–18 months of COVID-19 disruption. The predicted direction of change was generally correct (56%) or neutral (25%) for predictions related to the scientific endeavour, and correct (73%) or mixed (9%) for predictions related to sectors that are the focus of marine research. The success of this foresighting experiment suggests that the collective wisdom of scientists can be used by their organisations to consider the impact of shocks and disruptions and to better prepare for and cope with shocks. Graphical abstract Word cloud analysis of free text responses to questions about expected impact of COVID-19 on the activities associated with marine science

Reviews in Fish Biology and FisheriesVol. 35(1)
University of New Brunswick (CA), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU), University of Tasmania (AU), Pacific Community (NC), Fisheries and Oceans Canada (CA), Data61 (AU)
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Life below water
Openalex Percentile: Top 83%
COVID-19 impact on air quality
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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