Is Gamma-Ray Burst 221009A Really a Once-in-10,000 yr Event?

Abstract Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) brighter than the GRB 221009A, the brightest yet observed, have previously been estimated to occur at a rate of one per 10,000 yr, based on the extrapolation of the distribution of fluences of the long-GRB population. We show that bursts this bright could instead have a rate as high as approximately one per 200 yr if they are from a separate population of narrow-jet GRBs. This population must have a maximum redshift of about z ≈ 0.38 in order to avoid overproducing the observed rate of fainter GRBs. We show that it will take ≳100 yr to confirm this new population based on observing another GRB from it with a γ -ray detector; observing an orphan optical afterglow from this population with Vera Rubin Observatory or an orphan radio afterglow with the Square Kilometer Array will also take similarly long times to observe, and it is unclear if they could be distinguished from the standard GRB population. We show that the nearby narrow-jet population has more favorable energetics for producing ultra-high-energy cosmic rays than standard GRBs. The rate of bursts in the Milky Way bright enough to cause mass extinctions of life on Earth from the narrow-jet population is estimated to be approximately one per 500 Myr. This GRB population could make life in the Milky Way less likely, with implications for future searches for life on exoplanets.