Econometric analysis of factors influencing export performance of soybean (Glycine max) production in NIGERIA: An auto-regressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach

This study presents an econometric analysis of factors influencing the export performance of soybean (Glycine max) production in Nigeria using an auto-regressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach. The study used a secondary data covering the period from 2011 to 2022. The used data were collected from CBN (Central Bank of Nigeria), NBS (National Bureau of Statistics), FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization), and the General Household Survey-Panel (GHS-P) in conjunction with the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, and the World Bank publication. The data analysis included descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Bound test, ARDL, and principal component model. The result of the ADF unit root test showed that the trade openness, consumer price index, exchange rate, population growth, world trade in oil seeds, agricultural labor, and soybean production were stationary at first difference I (1), while agricultural machinery was stationary at level I (0). The results of ARDL method showed that the consumer price index, population growth rate, world trade in oil seeds, agricultural labor, and agricultural machinery were significant factors influencing export performance of soybean in Nigeria. The trade openness and exchange rate were not different significantly from zero. The trade openness could not expand market access due to non-competitiveness of the Nigerian’s soybean. The exchange rate has lost its role with respect to soybean seed partners in international trade. The policies that would encourage exportation of this crop should be pursued by provision of storage facilities, granting of tax holidays, long term export credit at concessionary interest rate to exporters, and research activities towards improving the quality of produced agricultural products. Keywords: Export Performance, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag, Soybean Production, Nigeria