Estimating Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Two California Cities Using Bayesian Inversion and Satellite Measurements

Abstract NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatories (OCO‐2 and OCO‐3) provide measurements of column‐averaged carbon dioxide concentrations (XCO 2 ) with sufficient spatial resolution and precision to constrain bottom‐up estimates of CO 2 fluxes at regional scales. We use Bayesian inversion methods assimilating satellite retrievals to improve estimates of CO 2 fluxes in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) which surrounds Los Angeles, and in the San Francisco Bay Area Air Basin (SFBA). We study 2020 to understand the impact of the COVID‐19 lockdowns and an active wildfire season. Our results indicated that a 50% (30%) reduction in CO 2 emissions relative to 2015 during the COVID‐19 lockdown period was consistent with OCO measurements for SFBA (SoCAB). We find that posterior wildfire emissions differed significantly from the prior at the scale of individual wildfires, though with large uncertainties, and that wildfire emissions in SFBA are significant, attributing 72% of the region's CO 2 emissions during August 2020 to wildfires.