Does drought increase intimate partner violence? Evidence from India

India has a high prevalence of intimate partner violence (IPV) against women. IPV has been observed to increase during natural disasters. Many studies have attempted to unravel the effect of drought on IPV; however, the evidence remains mixed. There is a gap in such studies in the Indian context, and this study seeks to fill this gap. We used data from the National Family Health Survey-4 (NFHS-4) (2015 – 2016) and NFHS-5 (2019 – 2021) to examine the effect of drought caused by the failure of the northeastern monsoon (NEM) in 2016 – 2018. Our analysis included data from 19 states and Union Territories of India (N = 34,590) in a difference-in-differences setup to evaluate the effect of the NEM drought on IPV. Exposure to the NEM drought was positively associated with physical violence (PV) and emotional violence, with results significant at the 95% and 99% confidence levels, respectively. A subsample analysis of rural and urban populations revealed that drought is significantly associated with an increase in sexual violence in urban areas, whereas it correlates with PV in rural areas. Additionally, exposure to drought is linked to a considerable rise in the controlling behavior of partners, for example, “He (is/was) jealous or angry if you (talk/talked) to other men,” “he (does/did) not permit you to meet your female friends).” These findings call for a two-fold policy action: providing support in the form of wage employment programs, subsidies, and other financial assistance during drought periods to help households cope with financial stress and implementing awareness programs aimed at changing partners’ mindsets, thereby reducing controlling behaviors in marriages.