Identification and validation of M2 macrophage-related gene signature as a novel prognostic model for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is a highly heterogeneous tumor. Commonly used tumor staging don't sufficiently and accurately assess the prognosis of HNSCC patients, resulting in a lack of guidance for clinical treatment decisions. M2 macrophage infiltration has been shown to be strongly associated with the tumor prognosis. In this study, we used the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) data to screen for genes co-expressed with M2 macrophages in HNSCC. We used univariate Cox regression to screen out the genes associated with HNSCC prognosis, and constructed a HNSCC prognosis model by Lasso regression analysis. The results confirmed that the model had good predictive value and accuracy for the prognosis of HNSCC patients by survival analysis, ROC curve and nomogram. We divided the HNSCC samples into high-risk and low-risk groups according to the risk score, and the results showed that patients in the high-risk group were more prone to genetic mutations and had a higher tumor mutational burden. In addition, there were significant differences between risk groups in terms of immune cell infiltration and drug sensitivity. The HNSCC prognostic model established in this study may provide guidance for clinical therapeutic decision-making and provide a theoretical foundation for the development of new immunotherapy methods.