Mapping illegal trade routes of live cheetahs from the Horn of Africa to the Arabian Peninsula

Less than 7000 cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) persist in Africa. Although human-wildlife conflict, habitat degradation, and loss of prey are major threats to cheetah populations, illegal trade in live cubs for pets may have the most significant impact on populations in the Horn of Africa. We developed a novel, stepwise decision support tool to predict probable trafficking routes by leveraging the power of distinct modeling approaches. First, we created a cheetah habitat suitability index (HSI) to determine where source cheetah populations may occur. We then created a trafficking network model linking known and predicted cheetah populations with documented destinations in the Arabian Peninsula. A significant area in Eastern Ethiopia and Northern Somalia was estimated to harbor undocumented cheetahs. When these predicted populations were used as a supply source, the trafficking network model showed multiple routes passing through Somaliland and across the Gulf of Aden to Yemen, supporting the notion that undocumented cheetahs may be supplying pet market demands. Though we demonstrate how our decision support tool can inform law enforcement, conservation strategies, and community engagement, we caution that our results are not fully validated due to limited accessibility, alternative trafficking routes, and the cryptic nature of illegal wildlife trade.