The Driving Factors and Path Selection for the Development Level of China’s Mariculture—A Dynamic Analysis Based on the TOE Framework

Mariculture is a key practice to promote the supply-side reform of fishery, and it is of strategic significance to explore the causes and paths of its high-level development. Based on the TOE (Technology-Organization-Environment) theoretical framework and the configuration methodology, this paper adopts the dynamic qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) method and panel data from 10 coastal provinces and cities in China from 2013 to 2021 to explore the configuration effects of six antecedents, namely, the intensity of technology promotion, investment in scientific research, personnel specialization, industry intensification, nearshore water quality, and offshore pollution discharge, along temporal and spatial dimensions, on the level of mariculture development. The results show that (1) individual driving factors do not constitute the necessary conditions for a high level of mariculture industry development, but the necessity of the three conditions—research funding, industry intensification and nearshore seawater quality—shows a general increasing trend; and (2) the results of the path analysis show that a total of seven configuration paths for a high level of development are generated, which can be further classified into “organization-led and technology synergistic”, “technology-organization-environment multiple-driven type”, and “technology-environment dual-driven type”. Based on the panel data, this study explores the impact of spatial and temporal changes in factor combinations on the development level of mariculture and provides a theoretical basis and practical insights for the development of locally adapted execution pathways.