Characteristics and Correlation Study of Mountainous Lake Ice Phenology Changes in Xinjiang, China Based on Passive Microwave Remote Sensing Data

Lake ice phenology directly reflects local climate changes, serving as a key indicator of climate change. In today’s rapidly evolving climate, utilizing advanced remote sensing techniques to quickly extract long-term lake ice phenology features and studying their correlation with other climate factors is crucial. This study focuses on lakes in Xinjiang, China, with a mountainous area greater than 100 km2, including Sayram Lake, Ayahkum Lake, Achihkul Lake, Jingyu Lake, and Ahsaykan Lake. The Bayesian ensemble change detection algorithm was employed to extract lake ice phenology information, and the Mann–Kendall (MK) non-parametric test was used to analyze trends. The visual interpretation method was used to interpret the spatial evolution characteristics of lake ice, and the Pearson correlation coefficient was used to explore the driving factors of lake ice phenology. Results indicate the following: (1) Jingyu Lake exhibited the most significant delay in both freezing and complete freezing days, while Ayahkum Lake showed the most stable pattern. Ahsaykan Lake demonstrated the least delay in both starting and complete melting days. (2) Sayram Lake’s ice evolution was unstable, with wind causing variability in the locations where freezing begins and melting spreading from the west shore. Ayahkum Lake, Ahsaykan Lake, and Jingyu Lake exhibited similar seasonal variations, while Achihkul Lake’s ice spatial changes spread from the east to the center during freezing and from the center to the shore during melting. (3) The study found that the freeze–thaw process is influenced by a combination of factors including lake area, precipitation, wind speed, and temperature.