Advancing Vehicle Trajectory Prediction: A Probabilistic Approach Using Combined Sequential Models

Abstract This paper addresses the critical need to quantify vehicle trajectory uncertainty in autonomous driving under environmental variability. We focus on predicting the posterior distribution of vehicle trajectories over a fixed horizon, given an initial state and a sequence of actions. We propose and compare three approaches: a probabilistic seq2seq model based on stochastic variational Gaussian processes, sequential Monte Carlo simulation with a single-step Gaussian process model, and a hybrid model that leverages the strengths of both methods. Each approach incorporates a baseline vehicle kinematics model to enhance stability and convergence. We evaluate these methods using a dataset generated from the CARLA simulator, assessing both point error metrics and probabilistic prediction metrics. This research introduces novel approaches to quantifying vehicle trajectory uncertainty through various uncertainty quantification techniques, with the goal of improving the safety and reliability of autonomous vehicle control systems.