Analysis of System Radiation Effects Using Markov Chains

Continuous time Markov chains (CTMCs) provide a mathematical framework for calculating system upset rates. The method is able to handle the calculation in cases where the system has multiple devices each of which may have a multitude of possible failure mechanisms. It can also account for the fact that failure mode effects can vary based on the current operating state. This article uses the concepts of CTMCs to calculate failure rates in a flight-like satellite system. The method is used to determine the most vulnerable part of the system and identify where hardening techniques are most useful. Different system hardening methods are compared.