Prediksi Risiko Emisi Karbon Dioksida Melalui Pemodelan GSTAR Kriging di Wilayah Asia

This study analyzes the variability of carbon dioxide emissions across Asia, revealing that China, India, and Indonesia are the primary contributors with extremely high average emissions and standard deviations. The GSTAR(3;1,1,1) model has been shown to be optimal for forecasting future emissions, based on lower RMSE and MAPE values. Ordinary Kriging analysis using the isotropic spherical semivariogram model provides the most accurate predictions for unobserved areas, with contour maps indicating that the northeastern region of Asia will continue to face high emission concentrations until 2027. While countries such as Brunei and Armenia have managed to keep emission levels low, the instability of emission trends across Asia underscores the need for emission reduction strategies tailored to the specific context of each country.