Rooftop Solar PV, Coal Plant Inflexibility and the Minimum Load Problem

Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM) has amongst the highest take-up rates of rooftop solar PV in the world. As with California, this has produced a distinctive load shape termed the “duck curve.” The Queensland version is being principally driven by non-scheduled (i.e., uncontrolled) rooftop solar PV. When combined with inflexible coal plant, it leads to a “minimum load problem.” In this article, we examine the feasibility of dispatch with ever-expanding rooftop solar PV resources in the NEM’s Queensland region and minimal demand elasticity. We find episodes of intractable dispatch throughout the year with rising intensity in the winter and spring months. Furthermore, we find no ability to “export your way out of the problem” via larger interstate interconnectors because the same problem is emerging in the adjacent region at the same time. Resolution ultimately requires inflexible coal plant exit, and entry of flexible plant. JEL Classification: D25, D80, G32, L51, Q41