Macroeconomic Determinants of Crime against Children A Case Study of Punjab

Despite it being a growing cause of concern, the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and crime against children has previously remained widely unnoticed. An extensive range of literature is reviewed that gives this domain of research a different perspective by investigating crime against children existent in various countries around the world. The analysis of this paper is divided into three sections. Firstly, a regression analysis has been run using time series data taken from Punjab, Pakistan for the years 2007-2017. Applying the Ordinary Least Square Technique and using income, unemployment, and education as independent variables and crime rate against female children as the dependent variable; a regression model was run. While income and education show a statistically significant relationship, a prediction cannot be made due to a limited data availability of the crime variable. Secondly, this paper takes a descriptive approach by using a correlation matrix to observe the relationship between total crime rate against male children and unemployment, poverty and social sector spending. Results of this Matrix indicate a positive relationship between crime with unemployment and crime with poverty, while there is a negative linkage among social sector spending and crime. However, a correlation matrix can only be used to define a causal relationship between variables and not be employed to make reliable cause and effect estimations.