Commercialisation, exogenous shocks and nutrition: Evidence from smallholder farmers in Bangladesh

Abstract This study empirically analyses the effect of agricultural commercialisation on food spending and nutrition outcomes in Bangladesh. We examine whether exposure to exogenous climate shocks moderates these relationships. We construct individual‐level nutrition measures and time‐varying climate extremes using nationally representative panel data. To address endogeneity concerns, we use an instrument variable approach. Results show that commercialisation leads to an improvement in the broad nutritional profile of individuals. However, the commercialisation–nutrition linkage is weaker for households exposed to frequent climate shocks than those in climate‐resilient areas. Importantly, climate shocks dampen the positive nutritional impacts of commercialisation and exacerbate existing inequalities in the nutritional status within the households. Women and girls appear disproportionately vulnerable to the nutrition‐weakening effects of weather stresses in commercialised agricultural households. This highlights twin policy challenges: strengthening smallholders' resilience to escalating climate risks alongside promoting gender‐equitable, nutrition‐sensitive agricultural commercialisation.