Development and validation of a novel nomogram to predict worsening of gastroesophageal reflux symptoms after laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy using Lasso-logistic regression

Background Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is among the most common complications of bariatric surgery. This study aimed to analyse the risk factors affecting the worsening of GERD symptoms after laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG), and to establish and validate a related nomogram model. Methods The study recruited 236 participants and randomly divided them into training and validation sets in a ratio of 7:3. LASSO regression technique was used to select the optimal predictive features, and multivariate logistic regression was used to construct the column line graphs. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated and validated by analyzing the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve. Results In this study, Lasso-logistic regression was applied to select 5 predictors from the relevant variables, which were body mass index (BMI), diabetes, hiatal hernia, GERD, and triglyceride levels. These 5 predictor variables constructed a model with moderate predictive power, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.779 for the training set and 0.796 for the validation set. Decision curve analysis showed that in external validation, if the risk thresholds were between 4 and 98% and 14-95%, then the nomogram can be applied to the clinic. Conclusions We have developed and validated a nomogram that effectively predicts the risk of worsening gastroesophageal reflux symptoms following LSG.