Emergence of information aggregation to rational expectations equilibria in markets populated by biased heuristic traders

Information aggregation is a key economic function of markets. We report results of a computational experiment with markets populated by simple algorithmic traders who follow two heuristics usually thought of as leading to biased information processing in behavioral economics literature (anchor-and-adjust, and representativeness). Outcomes of these markets either tend to cluster around (or fail to do so) rational expectations equilibria under specific conditions, consistent with markets populated by profit-motivated human traders. Algorithmic trader convergence is slower and noisier than that of human traders. Our results illustrate the emergence of rational expectations equilibria through complex interactions among actions of biased heuristic traders with limited information processing capabilities.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
Published
2024-10-25
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106700
Citations
1
Primary Topic
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
1.13
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article

Emergence of information aggregation to rational expectations equilibria in markets populated by biased heuristic traders

Michael S. Maier, Karim Jamal, Shyam Sunder
1 citations
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
1.13
article

Emergence of information aggregation to rational expectations equilibria in markets populated by biased heuristic traders

Michael S. Maier, Karim Jamal, Shyam Sunder
article en
1 citations

Abstract

Information aggregation is a key economic function of markets. We report results of a computational experiment with markets populated by simple algorithmic traders who follow two heuristics usually thought of as leading to biased information processing in behavioral economics literature (anchor-and-adjust, and representativeness). Outcomes of these markets either tend to cluster around (or fail to do so) rational expectations equilibria under specific conditions, consistent with markets populated by profit-motivated human traders. Algorithmic trader convergence is slower and noisier than that of human traders. Our results illustrate the emergence of rational expectations equilibria through complex interactions among actions of biased heuristic traders with limited information processing capabilities.

Journal of Economic Behavior & OrganizationVol. 228
University of Alberta (CA), Yale University (US)
Reduced inequalities
Openalex Percentile: Top 11%
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
1.13
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