Quantifying the rainfall variability effects on crop growth and production in the intensified annual forage - winter wheat rotation systems in a semiarid region of China

Replacing summer fallow period (July to September, SF) with annual short-season forages in the traditional fallow-winter wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) system may maintain grain yield and improve productivity in the semi-arid environments. But the uneven and variability rainfall led to instable productivity of the annual forage–winter wheat cropping system. The aims of this study were to 1) quantifying rainfall variability effects on annual forage–winter wheat system crop growing process and productivity; 2) determine the optimal annual forage–winter wheat production system that will response better to future climate change. A four-year (2016–2020) field experiment was conducted to investigate the impact of replacing summer fallow period with annual forages including oat (FO, Avena sativa L.), soybean (SB, Glycine max L.), and vetch (FV, Vicia sativa L.) on plant height (H), leaf area index (LAI), and above-ground biomass (AB yield ) growth index dynamics under three different levels of rainfall manipulation i.e. 30 % of ambient rainfall exclusion (R-30 %), natural rainfall (CK), and 30 % of ambient rainfall increase (R+30 %). Additionally, we assessed the correlations between forage and winter wheat production with growing season precipitation across 12 rainfall scenarios. Average forage biomass values of oat, soybean, and vetch were 5.50, 4.29, and 2.82 t ha −1 , respectively during summer fallow period. The average winter wheat grain yield values in SF, FO, SB, and FV were 3.78, 3.12, 4.02, and 3.18 t ha −1 , respectively. Integrating oat into fallow period had negative effects on wheat growth and production, and the H, LAI, and AB yield for FO were 63.7 %, 50.9 %, and 29.9 % lower than SF in dry year, but the wheat grain yield in SB were 18.2 % and 24.8 % greater than SF in normal and wet years. Across the four growing seasons, the forage and wheat yields were shown to be strongly related to precipitation, and increasing precipitation significantly enhanced the production. In 2016–2017 growing season, LAI of wheat in SF, FO, SB, and FV with R+30 % scenario was increased by 30.2 %, 21.7 %, 32.7 %, and 19.8 % and that with R-30 % scenario decreased by 23.2 %, 17.8 %, 24.7 %, 16.5 % compared CK, respectively. The traditional summer fallow practice had advantage for maintaining stability in wheat gain production, especially under dry years. In consideration of forage and wheat production to rainfall variability, integrating soybean into fallow season may be an efficient option to maintain wheat yield and produce high forage amount under future climate change on the Loess Plateau and similar semi-arid regions. • Precipitation distribution plays an important role for forage sowing and growth. • Forage and wheat yields are strongly related to growing precipitation. • Planting annual forages into dry fallow season had a negative on wheat growth. • Fallow-winter wheat had an advantage for maintaining wheat production stability. • Soybean- winter wheat may be an efficient option to future climate change.