Expert elicitation of state shifts and divergent sensitivities to climate warming across northern ecosystems

Northern regions are warming faster than the rest of the globe. It is difficult to predict ecosystem responses to warming because the thermal sensitivity of their biophysical components varies. Here, we present an analysis of the authors’ expert judgment regarding the sensitivity of six ecosystem components – permafrost, peatlands, lakes, snowpack, vegetation, and endothermic vertebrates – across northern landscapes ranging from boreal to polar biomes. We identified 28 discontinuous component states across a 3700 km latitudinal gradient in northeastern North America and quantified sensitivity as the transition time from an initial to a contrasting state following a theoretical step change increase in mean annual air temperature of 5 °C. We infer that multiple interconnected state shifts are likely to occur within a narrow subarctic latitudinal band at timescales of 10 to more than 100 years, and response times decrease with latitude. Response times differ between components and across latitudes, which is likely to impair the integrity of ecosystems. Warming-induced changes in permafrost, peatlands, lakes, snowpack, vegetation, and vertebrates could impact northern ecosystem integrity, with different response times across components and latitude, according to an expert assessment of sensitivity in northern landscapes.

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Publication Details

Journal
Communications Earth & Environment
Published
2024-10-25
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01791-z
Citations
12
Primary Topic
Tree-ring climate responses
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
4.52
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article

Expert elicitation of state shifts and divergent sensitivities to climate warming across northern ecosystems

Reinhard Pienitz, Éliane Duchesne, Alexandre Roy, Dermot Antoniades et al.
12 citations
Communications Earth & Environment
Tree-ring climate responses
4.52
article

Expert elicitation of state shifts and divergent sensitivities to climate warming across northern ecosystems

Reinhard Pienitz, Éliane Duchesne, Alexandre Roy, Dermot Antoniades, Raoul‐Marie Couture, Alain Royer, Michelle Garneau, Warwick F. Vincent, Isabelle Laurion, Dominique Fauteux, Nicolas Lecomte, Steeve D. Côté, Florent Dominé, Dominique Gravel, Serge Payette, Dominique Arseneault, Martin Lavoie, Jérôme Comte, Émilie Saulnier‐Talbot, Gilles Gauthier, M. Simard, Najat Bhiry, Christine Barnard, Kévin Cazelles, Dominique Berteaux, Stéphane Boudreau, Joël Bêty, Daniel Fortier, Milla Rautio, Michel Paquette, Frédéric Bouchard, Esther Lévesque, Guillaume de Lafontaine, Madeleine-Zoé Corbeil-Robitaille, Pierre Legagneux, Marie‐José Naud
article en
12 citations

Abstract

Northern regions are warming faster than the rest of the globe. It is difficult to predict ecosystem responses to warming because the thermal sensitivity of their biophysical components varies. Here, we present an analysis of the authors’ expert judgment regarding the sensitivity of six ecosystem components – permafrost, peatlands, lakes, snowpack, vegetation, and endothermic vertebrates – across northern landscapes ranging from boreal to polar biomes. We identified 28 discontinuous component states across a 3700 km latitudinal gradient in northeastern North America and quantified sensitivity as the transition time from an initial to a contrasting state following a theoretical step change increase in mean annual air temperature of 5 °C. We infer that multiple interconnected state shifts are likely to occur within a narrow subarctic latitudinal band at timescales of 10 to more than 100 years, and response times decrease with latitude. Response times differ between components and across latitudes, which is likely to impair the integrity of ecosystems. Warming-induced changes in permafrost, peatlands, lakes, snowpack, vegetation, and vertebrates could impact northern ecosystem integrity, with different response times across components and latitude, according to an expert assessment of sensitivity in northern landscapes.

Communications Earth & EnvironmentVol. 5(1)
Université du Québec à Chicoutimi (CA), Université de Sherbrooke (CA), Université de Moncton (CA), Université du Québec à Montréal (CA), Université du Québec à Rimouski (CA), Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique (CA), ArcticNet (CA), Canadian Museum of Nature (CA), Université Laval (CA), Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières (CA), Université de Montréal (CA)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 4%
Tree-ring climate responses
4.52
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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