Predictive Modeling for Enhancing MOOC Completion Rates: A Case Study

In the realm of online asynchronous learning platforms, accurately tracking student performance to predictcourse completion times poses a significant challenge. Completion rates for MOOCs are typically low, with abias towards participants with higher education levels. Understanding factors such as student motivation,engagement, participation, and learning pathway design is crucial for improving student outcomes in onlinecourses. This research developed a predictive framework utilizing advanced deep learning techniques toaccurately forecast course completion times for participants enrolled in an introductory programming course("Python for Beginners" course on the Open Learning Platform of University of Moratuwa Sri Lanka). Byaccurately tracking student performance and leveraging a diverse dataset encompassing demographic andeducational variables, the research seeks to identify factors influencing course completion and predictindividual student outcomes. By utilising deep learning techniques, the prediction performance of the modelwill be improved, ultimately contributing to a more precise forecast of course completion times forparticipants. Evaluation of the model resulted in low Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.0080 and low MeanSquared Error (MSE) of 0.0033 which promises the effectiveness of the developed method in accuratelypredicting course completion times for students. The findings of this study may help increase the successfulcompletion rate of such courses which are delivered in the online asynchronous mode. The study employedadvanced deep learning models optimized through Bayesian methods, highlighting the potential of thesetechniques to enhance MOOC completion rates by offering precise forecasts and actionable insights intostudent engagement. The comprehensive analysis revealed that variables such as 'Current_Lesson', 'SessionTime Category', and 'District_Score' significantly influence completion times. The robust methodologicalframework, including feature engineering, model training, and hyperparameter optimization, sets a precedentfor future research in the field. This research contributes to educational data mining and predictive analytics,offering a scalable approach to improving completion rates and educational outcomes across various onlinelearning platforms. Future research should explore incorporating real-time data and longitudinal studies toenhance model accuracy and generalizability. Additionally, addressing potential biases in the dataset, such asdemographic, prior knowledge, and resource access disparities, is essential to ensure the fair and equitableapplication of the model across diverse student populations. Expanding the research to include a wider rangeof courses and institutions will further validate the model's robustness and applicability in differenteducational contexts.