Examining Mass Prophetic Failure: The Trump Prophets and the 2020 Presidential Election

ABSTRACT: In the years and months leading up to the 2020 U.S. presidential election, more than fifty pro-Trump “prophets” linked to the New Apostolic Reformation (NAR) movement openly predicted that Donald Trump would win a second term. Though these prophets based their claims on divine direction, the former president lost by more than seven million votes. The sheer size of this mass prophetic failure merits further study and analysis. Indeed, prophetic failure on the scale of the NAR pro-Trump prophets is unparalleled in the social science research literature on failed prophecy and begs new questions and opens up new avenues of inquiry. This article identifies factors and conditions that account for mass prophetic failure, assesses converging explanations for the wayward oracles, and tracks post-election denials and reactions by NAR prophets that led to the January 6 insurrection.