Projected trends in ecosystem service valuation in response to land use land cover dynamics in Kishtwar High Altitude National Park, India

Abstract In an era where global biodiversity hotspots are under unprecedented threat, understanding the intricate balance between land use land cover (LULC) changes and their implications on ecosystem services value (ESV) becomes paramount. The region of Jammu and Kashmir, with its distinctive ecological importance, is well known for these challenges and opportunities. This region embodies various conservation reserves and national parks, and one of the most ecologically rich is called Kishtwar High Altitude National Park. It is often considered an example of biodiversity richness in the Indian subcontinent, as it protects a myriad of species and provides essential ecosystem services. However, despite its significance, it faces pressures from both peripheral human activities, such as seasonal grazing by nomadic communities and broader climatic changes. This study aims to investigate the complex relationship between these LULC shifts and their consequent effects on the park’s ESV. We used the cellular automata (CA)–Markov model to simulate the LULC for the future. Using the LULC from 1992 to 2020 and projecting for 2030, 2040, and 2050, we employed the global value coefficient method to understand the ESV contributions of different LULC types. Our results revealed a 7.43% increase in ESV from 1992 to 2020, largely due to the increase of forests and waterbodies. In contrast, our projections for 2020 to 2050 intimate a 7.55% decline in ESV, even amidst anticipated grassland expansion. These results highlight the role of forests in securing resilient ecosystem services. These findings shall help offer informed conservation strategies, that are relevant both regionally and globally.