The Distributional Range Changes of European Heterobasidion Under Future Climate Change

Heterobasidion, a significant forest pathogen affecting coniferous forests in the Northern Hemisphere, can infect 27 species of coniferous trees, leading to widespread forest mortality. It has already caused considerable damage to both natural and plantation forests in Europe. As essential components of the global ecosystem, forests are increasingly affected by ongoing environmental changes. The ability to accurately predict and effectively respond to pathogen outbreaks across different habitats is becoming increasingly critical. This study employs an optimized MaxEnt model in conjunction with six Global Climate Models (GCMs) to simulate and predict the potentially suitable distributions and changes of three Heterobasidion species in Europe (Heterobasidion abietinum, Heterobasidion annosum sensu stricto, Heterobasidion parviporum) under current conditions and four future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) for the period 2081–2100. The objective of this analysis is to assess the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of Heterobasidion species. The results indicate that the distributions of the three Heterobasidion species are influenced by factors such as temperature and precipitation. By 2081–2100, under most climate scenarios, except for the SSP585 scenario, the distribution areas of the three Heterobasidion species show an expansion trend. Notably, Heterobasidion abietinum showed the most significant expansion of its suitable habitat, while the expansion of low-suitability areas for Heterobasidion parviporum and Heterobasidion annosum sensu stricto was more pronounced. Heterobasidion abietinum is projected to shift southward due to factors such as precipitation, while Heterobasidion parviporum and Heterobasidion annosum sensu stricto are expected to migrate northward, influenced by factors such as temperature and host tree species.