Assessment of black carbon emissions in the area adjacent to the Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works

Global estimates of anthropogenic emissions lag behind satellite observations by 5-10 years. The article reviews the version of the global emissions database model A Community Emissions Data System (CEDS), released in April 2023 with data extending to 2019. New data are calculated and an estimate of black carbon emissions since 2000 is made for the territory adjacent to PJSC Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works (PJSC MMK). A comparison with previously obtained estimates for this territory and an analysis in terms of time and sectors are carried out, and a detailed verification with the main stages of PJSC MMK development is performed. The updated annual data on black carbon emissions estimates for the territory adjacent to PJSC MMK are lower than the previous ones in the versions of the model before 2014 for comparable time periods, while maintaining the general dynamics from previous versions of the model to the latest. It was revealed that since 2014, emissions have stabilized with a possible downward trend after 2017. It was shown that there is no direct connection between annual black carbon emissions and production volumes. An important aspect in analyzing the dynamics of emissions is a comprehensive assessment of the production volume with measures introduced to improve production technologies and sets of measures to reduce emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere. The verification (using the example of the collected data on black carbon emissions) with the main stages of PJSC MMK development showed that the estimates calculated using the international CEDS database can serve as an indicator of the effectiveness of introducing new technologies to reduce emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere.The study was carried out within the framework of the scientific topic of Roshydromet (FSBI “IGKE”) AAAA-A20-120021090098-8 “Development of methods and technologies for calculation monitoring of anthropogenic emissions and absorption by absorbents of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate-active substances”.