Spatially Explicit Model for Assessing the Impacts of Groundwater Protection Measures in the Vicinity of the Hranice Abyss

This study introduces a novel spatially explicit modeling framework developed to quantify the secondary environmental benefits of groundwater protection strategies in karst landscapes, with a specific application to the Hranice Abyss region. The model employs a multi-criteria decision analysis, integrated with hydrological modeling and a high-resolution random forest-based prediction algorithm, to downscale land surface temperature (LST) in order to obtain high-resolution 1 × 1 m spatial results. The primary contribution of this research lies in its capacity to assess not only the core objectives of groundwater protection but also its wider environmental impacts, including enhanced stormwater retention and the mitigation of land surface temperature increases. Key model predictors include land use and land cover data, and the framework is adaptable across diverse landscape types. In the case study area, water retention capacity demonstrated an increase of up to 30%, with an average rise in precipitation retention of 18.2 mm per microbasin. However, reductions in surface temperature were more modest, with a maximum decrease of 7.3%, corresponding to an average temperature drop of 1.5 °C. The model further identified pronounced seasonal and land-use-specific variations in surface temperature, particularly on agricultural land, where temperature fluctuations reached up to 2.6 °C between pre- and post-harvest periods. The findings of this study offer critical insights into how targeted land-use interventions can not only safeguard groundwater resources but also enhance landscape resilience to climate change. As such, this modeling approach provides an essential tool for the advancement of sustainable water resource management and climate-adaptive environmental planning.