Analysis of Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Water Poverty and Ecological Resilience Coupling Coordination in Chinese

ABSTRACT This study advances the understanding of urban sustainability by examining the interplay between water poverty and ecological resilience in China's megacities—a critical yet underexplored domain. Spanning a decade from 2013 to 2022, we leverage unique data sets from 10 megacities and introduce a pioneering coupling coordination model. This model is the cornerstone of our methodological innovation, allowing for an integrated analysis of the coupling relationship and spatiotemporal evolution of water poverty and ecological resilience. Our first innovation lies in applying this novel model, which provides a nuanced perspective on the dynamic linkages between water scarcity and ecosystem robustness. We reveal that from 2013 to 2022, there has been a significant upward trend in the comprehensive evaluation indices, with water poverty and ecological resilience witnessing a 166.13% and 204.29% increase, respectively. This underscores the substantial improvements achieved in these critical areas. Secondly, our research innovates by offering a detailed spatiotemporal analysis, highlighting the strengthening coupling and coordination degree between water poverty and ecological resilience over the observed period. The case of Wuhan, with a remarkable coupling coordination index of 9.305 in 2022, exemplifies a city that has reached a highly coordinated status, marking a significant advancement in urban environmental synergy. Lastly, our use of the Tobit model to explore the main influencing factors offers new insights into the drivers of the coupling and coordination level. We find that economic development, industrial structure and technological innovation positively influence this level, whereas population density and urbanization exert negative pressures.