Reliability Evaluation and Weak Link Identification of HVDC System Considering Environmental and Weather Factors

The reliability of HVDC transmission systems with a high proportion of new energy sources, such as those in southeast Tibet and Qinghai, is increasingly scrutinized due to rising transmission capacity to the Southern Power Grid. The complex external environment and weather conditions at these energy bases significantly impact equipment performance, affecting system dependability. The intricate wiring and numerous components in HVDC systems further complicate reliability assessment. This study proposes a weak link detection and reliability evaluation model for HVDC systems, considering environmental and meteorological factors. It first analyzes equipment failure mechanisms under various conditions, establishing a time-varying failure rate model. A combined weather and component state modeling approach using MCMC is introduced to assess system reliability. Finally, a reliability tracking-based model is developed for identifying weak links, providing targeted support for system maintenance.