Agricultural innovation for climate change: limited but positive impacts of commercialized drought-tolerant corn

Abstract The extent to which new technologies can countervail the risks posed by climate change is a critical element for designing adaptation strategies. This study uses new experimental data spanning 17 US states from 2008 to 2023 to examine the potential impact of recently commercialized drought tolerant (DT) traits on both yield and yield resilience in US corn production. We find that there is no yield advantage for DT hybrids under average weather conditions, but they improve yield resilience, particularly with respect to precipitation. These effects are spatially heterogeneous, such that DT has a positive yield impact in the droughty, western US, but a small, or even negative, impact in the central and eastern US. In addition, the presence of DT reduces yield variance and kurtosis, and increases skewness, all of which imply a reduction in yield risk. Using the statistical model estimates, we project the impact of DT on corn yields under future climate conditions obtained from 20 general circulation models with two representative concentration pathways. The projected ensemble means of yield gains are 6.34 bu/acre and 5.39 bu/acre under moderate and extreme warming scenarios, respectively, by the mid-twenty-first century. These gains compensate for 23% and 13.5% of total yield loss due to climate change. Our results indicate that current commercial DT hybrids reduce yield risk, improve resilience with respect to precipitation, and have the potential to offer moderate benefits under climate change warming scenarios.