Is firm-level political risk priced in the corporate bond market?

· Company-specific political risk is measured using textual analysis quarterly earning calls · We document a positive and significant political risk premium in corporate bond markets · Riskier and less liquid bonds exhibit a larger political risk premium · The political risk premium is positively associated with monetary policy shocks We investigate whether political risk is priced in the cross-section of corporate bond returns by using a text-based measure of firm-level political risk. We document a positive and significant political risk premium after controlling for bond and firm characteristics, conventional risk factors, and exposure to aggregate economic policy uncertainty. Bonds with higher political and credit risk, as well as smaller, more illiquid, and longer maturity corporate bonds exhibit a larger political risk premium. Time-series analysis indicates that monetary policy shocks and common shocks in the equity and bond market exhibit a statistically significant and positive association with the political risk premium. Our findings reveal the importance of idiosyncratic political risk beyond common risk factors and aggregate economic policy uncertainty.

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Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Empirical Finance
Published
2024-10-25
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101562
Citations
7
Primary Topic
Corporate Finance and Governance
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
6.62
Controls
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article

Is firm-level political risk priced in the corporate bond market?

Vanja Piljak, Laurens Swinkels, Luis Ceballos
7 citations
Journal of Empirical Finance
Corporate Finance and Governance
6.62
article

Is firm-level political risk priced in the corporate bond market?

Vanja Piljak, Laurens Swinkels, Luis Ceballos
article en
7 citations

Abstract

· Company-specific political risk is measured using textual analysis quarterly earning calls · We document a positive and significant political risk premium in corporate bond markets · Riskier and less liquid bonds exhibit a larger political risk premium · The political risk premium is positively associated with monetary policy shocks We investigate whether political risk is priced in the cross-section of corporate bond returns by using a text-based measure of firm-level political risk. We document a positive and significant political risk premium after controlling for bond and firm characteristics, conventional risk factors, and exposure to aggregate economic policy uncertainty. Bonds with higher political and credit risk, as well as smaller, more illiquid, and longer maturity corporate bonds exhibit a larger political risk premium. Time-series analysis indicates that monetary policy shocks and common shocks in the equity and bond market exhibit a statistically significant and positive association with the political risk premium. Our findings reveal the importance of idiosyncratic political risk beyond common risk factors and aggregate economic policy uncertainty.

Journal of Empirical FinanceVol. 79
University of San Diego (US), University of Vaasa (FI), Erasmus University Rotterdam (NL)
Openalex Percentile: Top 3%
Corporate Finance and Governance
6.62
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