Unravelling the speed-going relationship: A proof of concept study from British turf flat and jump race meetings

The maximum galloping speeds of racehorses during a race are influenced by the functional performance of the ground ('going') amongst other factors. For turf racecourses in Britain, the ground is descriptively classified and numerically quantified on the morning of a race meeting by the clerk of the course and subsequently published to assist decision making. Importantly, this includes deciding whether a horse should or should not run. The going is also assessed and classified during the meeting by racing analysts using the normalized winning times from each race result. Differences between going assessments are regularly reported, therefore this study aimed to evaluate whether an alternative method of measuring going could better predict going measured from performances. Measurement and performance data from 25 flat and 25 jump meetings were compared using linear and nonlinear regression models. A continuous two-phase polynomial model for cushioning was found to be the best predictor of performance going for all 50 meetings (adjusted r²=0.819, P<0.001). As cushioning can provide a going related indicator of the forces that the horse will experience at gallop, this measurement may be useful when evaluating racecourse going. This initial model suggests that there is little performance advantage at maximal galloping speeds above a cushioning value of approximately10 kN, possibly due to changes in limb contact timings to manage limb forces limits as the ground becomes firmer. An expansion of objective measurements of going that relate to performance across a wider geographic region, if not internationally are needed to confirm this limit.