Artificial intelligence reveals past climate extremes by reconstructing historical records

The understanding of recent climate extremes and the characterization of climate risk require examining these extremes within a historical context. However, the existing datasets of observed extremes generally exhibit spatial gaps and inaccuracies due to inadequate spatial extrapolation. This problem arises from traditional statistical methods used to account for the lack of measurements, particularly prevalent before the mid-20th century. In this work, we use artificial intelligence to reconstruct observations of European climate extremes (warm and cold days and nights) by leveraging Earth system model data from CMIP6 through transfer learning. Our method surpasses conventional statistical techniques and diffusion models, showcasing its ability to reconstruct past extreme events and reveal spatial trends across an extensive time span (1901-2018) that is not covered by most reanalysis datasets. Providing our dataset to the climate community will improve the characterization of climate extremes, resulting in better risk management and policies.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2024-10-24
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-53464-2
Citations
19
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
5.65

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article

Artificial intelligence reveals past climate extremes by reconstructing historical records

Étienne Plésiat, Markus G. Donat, Christopher Kadow, Robert Dunn
19 citations
Nature Communications
Climate variability and models
5.65
article

Artificial intelligence reveals past climate extremes by reconstructing historical records

Étienne Plésiat, Markus G. Donat, Christopher Kadow, Robert Dunn
article en
19 citations

Abstract

The understanding of recent climate extremes and the characterization of climate risk require examining these extremes within a historical context. However, the existing datasets of observed extremes generally exhibit spatial gaps and inaccuracies due to inadequate spatial extrapolation. This problem arises from traditional statistical methods used to account for the lack of measurements, particularly prevalent before the mid-20th century. In this work, we use artificial intelligence to reconstruct observations of European climate extremes (warm and cold days and nights) by leveraging Earth system model data from CMIP6 through transfer learning. Our method surpasses conventional statistical techniques and diffusion models, showcasing its ability to reconstruct past extreme events and reveal spatial trends across an extensive time span (1901-2018) that is not covered by most reanalysis datasets. Providing our dataset to the climate community will improve the characterization of climate extremes, resulting in better risk management and policies.

Nature CommunicationsVol. 15(1)
Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ES), Met Office (GB), Barcelona Supercomputing Center (ES), German Climate Computing Centre (DE), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (ES)
Met Office, AXA Research Fund, Horizon 2020 Framework Programme, HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 3%
Climate variability and models
5.65
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