Identification and assessment of the mudflat ecological vulnerability dominated by coastline evolution in Jiangsu

• The stability of Jiangsu coastline shows a rising trend in the past two decades. • Coastal ecological vulnerability assessment considers coastline change. • The ecological vulnerability of Jiangsu coastal zone is decreasing gradually. • Tidal action and geomorphology were the main factors affecting the vulnerability. Coastlines have experienced profound alterations due to human disturbances and ocean dynamics against the backdrop of climate change and intensified anthropogenic activities. Significant modifications have occurred within the muddy coastal ecosystem, rendering it extremely susceptible to heightened levels of vulnerability. However, existing studies on coastal eco-environmental vulnerability have often overlooked crucial factors such as coastline erosion and siltation, particularly concerning coastline change. In this study, we assess coastline stability utilizing Landsat remote sensing imagery to investigate the vulnerability of coastal ecology alongside 24 economic and natural parameters, serving as indices for the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) of the coastal eco-environment. Subsequently, we analyze the impact factors to vulnerability and predict trends in coastline change over the next 20 years to propose recommendations for sustainable development to safeguard the coastal eco-environment. Our findings reveal a trend towards coastline stabilization in Jiangsu, with significantly higher stability observed during 2010–2020 compared to 1985–2010. The overall CVI along the Jiangsu coast shows an downward trajectory over the past 15 years, primarily influenced by tidal action and coastal topography and geomorphology. Predictive modeling suggests Jiangsu coastline is bounded by the Sheyang estuary, with the coastline to the north dominated by stabilization and to the south dominated by siltation. Climate change, coupled with intensified human activities and future coastline alterations, may exacerbate vulnerability. Effective protection strategies for coastal ecosystems necessitate a comprehensive understanding of local natural conditions, resource availability, and socioeconomic dynamics. Governmental interventions should focus on reinforcing regulatory frameworks for coastal organism management, implementing coastal protection infrastructure, and enhancing supervision and management protocols for beachfront development, thereby fostering the sustainable management of muddy coastlines.