Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation

Abstract. Natural disturbances like windthrows or forest fires alter the provision of forest ecosystem services such as timber production, protection from natural hazards, and carbon sequestration. After a disturbance, forests release large amounts of carbon and therefore change their status from carbon sinks to carbon sources for some time. Climate-smart forest management may decrease forest vulnerability to disturbances and thus reduce carbon emissions as a consequence of future disturbances. But how can we prioritise the stands most in need of climate-smart management? In this study we adopted a risk mapping framework (hazard times vulnerability) to assess the risk to climate-related forest ecosystem services (carbon stock and sink) in forests prone to windthrow (in the Julian Alps, Italy) and forest fires (in the Apennines, Italy). We calculated hazard by using forest fire and windthrow simulation tools and examined the most important drivers of the respective hazards. We then assessed vulnerability by calculating current carbon stocks and sinks in each forest stand. We combined these values together with the calculated hazard to estimate “carbon risk” and prioritised high-risk stands for climate-smart management. Our findings demonstrate that combining disturbance simulation tools and forest carbon measurements may aid in risk-related decision-making in forests and in planning decisions for climate-smart forestry. This approach may be replicated in other mountain forests to enhance our understanding of their actual carbon vulnerability to forest disturbances.