Selection of aerodynamic characteristics and engine parameters of a maneuverable aircraft under epistemic uncertainty

At the preliminary stage of aircraft design, it is usually required to solve the problem of insufficient initial data for applying traditional algoristic-type mathematical programming models. In many cases, numerous input parameters cannot be accurately specified at the time of making design decisions. If the inaccuracy of parameters is not taken into account, the actual values of target functions may differ significantly from the calculated ones when solving optimization problems. In this regard, the issue of current interest is the development of algorithms to improve the reliability of design decisions under conditions of epistemological uncertainty when experts engage in the formation of initial data. The paper considers the problem of selecting aerodynamic characteristics and engine parameters of maneuverable aircraft under conditions of uncertainty associated with inaccuracy of expert data. The applied problem under consideration is further complicated by the necessity to include “black box” models in the algorithms being developed. The paper proposes algorithms that apply the uncertainty theory together with “black box” models that implement optimization calculation techniques derived from previous engineering practice of aircraft design. Using these algorithms, experts are able to set uncertain parameters whereby the lack of data is factored in using uncertainty distribution functions. In cases of monotonicity of uncertain parameters in target functions, application of the uncertainty theory provides a significant reduction in computational costs compared to the method of statistical modeling in optimization calculations. The paper presents the results of computational studies of the developed algorithms. A genetic algorithm (mathematical optimization solver) is used to optimize the search for design solutions. Pareto frontiers are obtained for different confidence levels enabling to make design decisions including values of aerodynamic characteristics and engine parameters of maneuverable aircraft.