Factors influencing harvest success for an Arctic under-ice subsistence fishery

Long-term fisheries datasets are particularly rare in Arctic environments and are essential to understanding the variability in harvest rates. We analyzed 30 years of harvest monitoring data and compared results to fish monitoring data from nearshore waters of Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, to determine the importance of age-0 recruitment and intra-annual factors on subsequent harvests of Arctic cisco in the Colville River delta (CRD), Alaska. While age-0 recruitment to Prudhoe Bay was positively associated with annual harvest success in the CRD, wind and salinity patterns and subsistence fishing location and timing also contributed significantly in explaining adult harvest variability. Harvest rates were highest closest to the river mouth and early in the season. Harvest rates increased with increasing salinity up to 25 ppt, then declined. As the climate changes in the region, we may see shifts in nearshore ocean and river conditions which will impact recruitment and fishing activity. These long-term monitoring efforts will continue to inform sustainable fisheries management in the face of a rapidly changing climate, and with ongoing infrastructure development in the region.