Net Zero by 2050: A Tale of Three Economies

A longitudinal study of CO2 emission from 79 economies over eight decades has shown that they can be divided into three types: coal dominated, oil and gas dominated, or renewable and nuclear energies (REN) dominated. Economies beginning their industrialization with coal will transition first from the coal-dominated stage to the oil and gas-dominated stage and then to the REN-dominated stage. Those beginning their industrialization with oil and gas will transition from the oil and gas-dominated to the REN-dominated stage. For each type of economy, there are two possible types of emitters, those with CO2 emission increasing with time (polluters) and those decreasing or not increasing with time (decarbonizers). REN-dominated economies only have decarboinzers. By assuming current CO2 emission trends to continue, the target decarbonization rate for each economy to achieve net zero by 2050 is calculated. Results show that three groups of economies have the highest decarbonization targets. The first group consists of coal-dominated economies which are polluters such as China and India. Their decarbonization will rely heavily on the cessation of unabated coal-fired power and industrial plants. The second group consists of oil and gas-dominated economies which are polluters. They include oil and gas producers such as Russia and Saudi Arabia. Their decarbonization will rely heavily on the cessation of unabated gas-fired power plants. The third group consists of oil and gas-dominated economies which are decarbonizers. They include USA and many European countries. Their decarbonization will rely on continued reduction in unabated coal and gas fired power plants and increased use of REN. Among available decarbonization technologies, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is the one that will allow economies to decarbonize without changing their energy mix and is therefore game changing. Implications of our findings are discussed.