Surprisingly wide climatic niche breadth of a relict mountain species raises hope for survival under climate change

Abstract Aims We assessed the juvenile climatic niche breadth of a relict mountain species by comparing field observations and transplant experiments within and beyond the elevational limits of its distribution range. Location Lebanon – Near East – Mediterranean region. Methods We studied the survival and growth of the Cedar of Lebanon ( Cedrus libani ) to determine the lower and upper elevational range limits of its juvenile stage through an experimental setup with and without water supplementation and with potentially competing species as a control. The experiment included eight common gardens at elevations ranging from 110 to 2330 m, within and far beyond the warm and cold limits of Cedar distribution observed under natural conditions. Results We observed unexpectedly high survival and growth rates of Cedar at elevations well below the range of its natural distribution in Lebanon. Below the observed warm limit, water stress at very low elevations and competition at low and medium elevations limited juvenile survival. In contrast, cold temperature and water stress limited survival at elevations slightly above the observed upper natural limit. The experimental setup demonstrated that the elevation range suitable for Cedar growth and survival was twice as wide as the range within which Cedar is observed under natural conditions. Main Conclusions High survival rates experimentally observed beyond the warm limit of the natural distribution range of the Cedar of Lebanon raise hope for its resilience to ongoing climate warming. If this pattern were frequent among montane species, it would challenge predictions of massive extinction with climate change and pave the way for promoting adaptive actions such as competition management to improve their survival.