The Impact of Digitalization on Agricultural Green Development: Evidence from China’s Provinces

Agricultural green development is crucial for achieving the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, with the digital technology revolution acting as a catalyst for both China’s green agricultural transformation and global sustainable development efforts. This study utilizes panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (including autonomous regions and municipalities) from 2012 to 2022 to assess the digitalization level and agricultural green development through a combined entropy weight and TOPSIS method. It also investigates the spatial agglomeration of agricultural green development using Moran’s I index and empirically evaluates the impact of digitalization on agricultural green development through OLS and spatial Durbin models. The findings reveal that, while China’s agricultural green development has progressed slowly yet steadily during the study period, it demonstrates significant spatial agglomeration, driven primarily by agricultural production efficiency and resource recycling. Notably, a non-linear U-shaped relationship exists between digitalization and agricultural green development, suggesting that digitalization fosters agricultural green development only after surpassing a certain threshold. Additionally, digitalization has spatial spillover effects: advancements in neighboring provinces correlate with local agricultural green development in a U-shaped manner, with an initial “siphon effect” followed by a “trickle-down effect.” These insights inform policy recommendations aimed at optimizing the use of digital technology to facilitate green agricultural transformation, offering valuable guidance for policymakers.