Assessing the Influence of Economic Factors on the Dynamics of Exports of Russian Oil and Petroleum Products Based on the Use of a Combination of PEST and SWOT Analysis Methods

The presented work is part of a series of articles devoted to assessing the influence of external factors on the dynamics of Russian exports. In this and subsequent related works, the authors proposed to consider the external environment, which had a significant impact on the dynamics of Russian exports and the relative diffi culty of revising its structure, the basis of commodity exports of which in value terms are hydrocarbon energy carriers. This work represents a conceptual basis for the use of instrumental methods for assessing the influence of external factors, in this case, economic ones, on the integral and sectoral indicators of Russian exports and, in particular, on the export of hydrocarbon energy resources. In the second part of this article, it is proposed to use a set of environmental analysis methods, the basis of which was the previously successfully used mechanism for combining the methods of PESTEL and SWOT analysis, which will make it possible, based on the use of scores, to describe the cumulative influence of external factors on the dynamics of the main industries of Russian exports. The novelty of the presented approach lies in the absence of a methodology for a comprehensive assessment of the influence of external factors on the dynamics of Russian exports using the selected tools, which seems useful and timely in light of the emergence of new political and economic factors that have a significant impact on Russian foreign trade in general and on the dynamics of the carbohydrate energy market , in particular. The parameters for assessing external factors proposed by the authors were chosen by the author independently, taking into account the modern realities of the development of the world economy, which can also represent a separate point of novelty of the research conducted or be part of one of the existing points of novelty of the presented work. The merit of the authors of this work lies in the fact that this work proposed their own vision of a comprehensive assessment of the influence of external factors on the dynamics of the country’s exports.